Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | GMU +138 DAY -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +4 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -3.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.4 (+4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -2.0 (+6.0) | 132.8 (+5.2) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -1.8 (+5.8) | 134.2 (+3.8) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -2.2 (+6.2) | 134.7 (+3.3) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -1.8 (+5.8) | 134.6 (+3.4) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | DAY 82 – 67 GMU |
| Jan 16, 2025 | GMU 67 – 59 DAY |
| Feb 25, 2023 | GMU 74 – 69 DAY |
| Jan 23, 2022 | GMU 50 – 49 DAY |
| Feb 6, 2021 | DAY 74 – 65 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-3 | 15-0 |
| Away | 5-7 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#94) | 12.9 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#88) | 2.68 (#11) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#94) | 3.29 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#62) | 0.646 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 39.0% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 14.3% |
Game Analysis
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