Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | DAY -250 GMU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +9 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -7.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.3 (+5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -5.6 (+3.4) | 135.3 (+3.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -6.1 (+2.9) | 135.6 (+3.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -6.8 (+2.2) | 136.4 (+2.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -7.0 (+2.0) | 135.4 (+3.6) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | DAY 82 – 67 GMU |
| Jan 16, 2025 | GMU 67 – 59 DAY |
| Feb 22, 2024 | GMU 71 – 67 DAY |
| Feb 25, 2023 | GMU 74 – 69 DAY |
| Jan 23, 2022 | GMU 50 – 49 DAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-10 | 13-9 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 8-6 |
| Home | 8-3 | 7-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-4 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 4.8 (#105) | 0.0 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#80) | 0.40 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#67) | 0.30 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#82) | 0.527 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 6.3 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 22.1% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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