Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | USC +380 ILL -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +36 | 166 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -9.6 (-26.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.7 (+7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -7.1 (-28.9) | 154.9 (+11.1) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -6.3 (-29.7) | 151.9 (+14.1) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -6.5 (-29.5) | 151.0 (+15.0) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -7.5 (-28.5) | 150.5 (+15.5) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2025 | USC 82 – 72 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 15-5 |
| Home | 9-7 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#52) | 23.4 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#36) | 3.73 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.76 (#45) | 4.97 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#42) | 0.639 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 41.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 38.9% |
| FT Rate | 34.5% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 11.4% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 13.4% |
Game Analysis
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