Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | ILL -1400 USC +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +10 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -21.0 (-31.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.5 (+0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -15.5 (-25.5) | 155.4 (-1.4) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -15.3 (-25.3) | 153.6 (+0.4) | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -17.1 (-27.1) | 153.7 (+0.3) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -16.0 (-26.0) | 154.5 (-0.5) | 88% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | ILL 101 – 65 USC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 7-13 |
| Home | 13-4 | 12-7 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.6 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 23.4 (#4) | 6.3 (#82) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.35 (#15) | 0.77 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.88 (#11) | 1.39 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.623 (#28) | 0.521 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 45.9 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.1% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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