Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | LT -142 JXST +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +6 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | LT -1.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.5 (+23.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -1.3 (+4.7) | 132.8 (+15.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -1.2 (+4.8) | 128.4 (+19.6) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LT -0.5 (+5.5) | 130.1 (+17.9) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -0.6 (+5.4) | 132.3 (+15.7) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | JXST 64 – 60 LT |
| Feb 15, 2025 | JXST 70 – 68 LT |
| Jan 17, 2025 | JXST 63 – 61 LT |
| Feb 16, 2024 | LT 63 – 58 JXST |
| Jan 20, 2024 | LT 74 – 57 JXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LT | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-7 |
| Away | 4-10 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#233) | -2.8 (#214) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#211) | -0.62 (#226) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#228) | -0.67 (#217) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#222) | 0.477 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LT | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 27.0% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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