Betting Lines
| Spread | NU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | NU -380 MD +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +4 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | NU -10.8 (-6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (+5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NU -7.7 (-3.7) | 140.7 (+11.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NU -7.5 (-3.5) | 139.2 (+12.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NU -8.6 (-4.6) | 140.1 (+11.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NU -8.1 (-4.1) | 139.4 (+12.6) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2025 | MD 74 – 61 NU |
| Jan 17, 2025 | NU 76 – 74 MD |
| Feb 29, 2024 | NU 68 – 61 MD |
| Jan 18, 2024 | NU 72 – 69 MD |
| Feb 26, 2023 | MD 75 – 59 NU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 4-16 |
| Home | 9-8 | 7-8 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#68) | 1.2 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#101) | 0.79 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#97) | 0.96 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#155) | 0.514 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.99 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 12.8% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 65.5% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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