Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | MD -250 NU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +7 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | MD -4.1 (-11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.9 (-2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -2.6 (-9.6) | 133.1 (-4.1) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -3.2 (-10.2) | 131.7 (-2.7) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -2.4 (-9.4) | 133.4 (-4.4) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MD -3.0 (-10.0) | 134.3 (-5.3) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | NU 78 – 74 MD |
| Mar 8, 2025 | MD 74 – 61 NU |
| Jan 17, 2025 | NU 76 – 74 MD |
| Jan 18, 2024 | NU 72 – 69 MD |
| Feb 26, 2023 | MD 75 – 59 NU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 12-8 |
| Home | 11-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.9 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#49) | 9.6 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#93) | 2.10 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.84 (#62) | 2.71 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#129) | 0.570 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | NU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 39.5% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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