Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | MD -800 NU +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +13 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | MD -11.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (-7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -10.1 (+2.9) | 139.7 (-4.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -11.3 (+1.7) | 139.1 (-4.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -11.0 (+2.0) | 137.7 (-2.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -10.9 (+2.1) | 141.4 (-6.4) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | NU 78 – 74 MD |
| Jan 17, 2025 | NU 76 – 74 MD |
| Feb 29, 2024 | NU 68 – 61 MD |
| Jan 18, 2024 | NU 72 – 69 MD |
| Feb 26, 2023 | MD 75 – 59 NU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 7-13 |
| Home | 17-2 | 12-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.1 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 69.2 |
| Massey | 19.9 (#9) | 11.4 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.81 (#23) | 1.44 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.86 (#14) | 2.24 (#55) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#24) | 0.538 (#107) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | NU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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