Betting Lines
| Spread | NU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | NU -200 MD +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +3 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | NU -4.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.4 (+12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NU -4.1 (-1.1) | 132.8 (+8.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NU -3.9 (-0.9) | 133.4 (+7.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NU -3.5 (-0.5) | 133.7 (+7.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NU -4.7 (-1.7) | 134.8 (+6.2) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | NU 78 – 74 MD |
| Mar 8, 2025 | MD 74 – 61 NU |
| Jan 17, 2025 | NU 76 – 74 MD |
| Feb 29, 2024 | NU 68 – 61 MD |
| Feb 26, 2023 | MD 75 – 59 NU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 7-13 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 65.9 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#72) | 7.1 (#79) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#32) | 0.90 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.90 (#26) | 1.42 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#46) | 0.525 (#132) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.72 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 31.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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