Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | MD -300 NU +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +16 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | MD -5.0 (+11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.4 (+7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -5.4 (+10.6) | 132.4 (+1.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -5.0 (+11.0) | 130.3 (+3.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -5.5 (+10.5) | 130.6 (+3.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -5.2 (+10.8) | 132.5 (+1.5) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | NU 78 – 74 MD |
| Mar 8, 2025 | MD 74 – 61 NU |
| Jan 17, 2025 | NU 76 – 74 MD |
| Feb 29, 2024 | NU 68 – 61 MD |
| Jan 18, 2024 | NU 72 – 69 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-5 |
| Away | 2-9 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.5 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 12.4 (#26) | 11.0 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#37) | 2.13 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.64 (#29) | 2.42 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#38) | 0.570 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | NU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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