Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | NU +115 MD -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +2 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | MD -4.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (+8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -1.9 (+3.9) | 140.1 (+9.9) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -2.6 (+4.6) | 142.5 (+7.5) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MD -2.5 (+4.5) | 144.0 (+6.0) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -2.7 (+4.7) | 144.1 (+5.9) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | NU 78 – 74 MD |
| Mar 8, 2025 | MD 74 – 61 NU |
| Feb 29, 2024 | NU 68 – 61 MD |
| Jan 18, 2024 | NU 72 – 69 MD |
| Feb 26, 2023 | MD 75 – 59 NU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 14-6 |
| Home | 12-5 | 17-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 81.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#55) | 18.6 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.34 (#71) | 2.08 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.09 (#62) | 2.94 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#70) | 0.560 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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