Sometimes we're not prepared for adversity. "Mercy, Mercy, Mercy" - The Cannonball Adderley Quartet
Ohio Valley Conference · Gentry Center · February 20, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread TNST -3.5 Home covered
O/U 159.5 Over
Money TNST -175 / LIN +145
Model Predictions
Spread Total TNST win
Actual TNST +9 169 Won
Massey TNST -3.3 (+5.7)
Massey Totals 162.1 (+6.9)
Bradley-Terry 69%
Weighted B-T 70%
Efficiency Plus ML TNST -3.4 (+5.6) 155.8 (+13.2) 72%
Baseline Tuned ML TNST -3.0 (+6.0) 152.6 (+16.4) 65%
Baseline ML TNST -3.0 (+6.0) 155.0 (+14.0) 64%
Baseline Plus ML TNST -3.1 (+5.9) 156.4 (+12.6) 68%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 24, 2026 TNST 9686 LIN
Mar 7, 2025 TNST 6955 LIN
Feb 8, 2025 TNST 8476 LIN
Jan 10, 2025 LIN 7262 TNST
Feb 9, 2024 TNST 6555 LIN

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TNST LIN
Overall 23-10 18-15
Conference 15-5 11-9
Home 10-2 9-5
Away 10-7 7-9
Neutral 2-1 2-1
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 77.9 74.4
Avg Pts Against 75.1 75.0
Massey -5.0 (#245) -5.4 (#254)
Bradley-Terry -0.35 (#205) -0.63 (#225)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.87 (#234) -1.14 (#250)
RPI 0.518 (#135) 0.486 (#213)
Shooting & Four Factors TNST LIN
FG% 44.5% 44.2%
3PT% 31.8% 29.0%
REB / G 35.8 37.8
OREB / G 12.9 12.5
AST / TO 1.12 0.96
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.3% 48.7%
TOV% 16.2% 19.1%
ORB% 34.0% 33.0%
FT Rate 25.4% 26.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.7% 49.7%
Opp TOV% 19.7% 18.7%
DRB% 68.4% 67.9%
Opp FT Rate 32.1% 25.0%

Game Analysis

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