Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | TNST -300 LIN +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +8 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -8.0 (+0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (+7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -6.7 (+1.3) | 147.5 (+12.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -5.5 (+2.5) | 146.1 (+13.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -5.8 (+2.2) | 146.2 (+13.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -5.1 (+2.9) | 149.2 (+10.8) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | TNST 89 – 80 LIN |
| Jan 24, 2026 | TNST 96 – 86 LIN |
| Mar 7, 2025 | TNST 69 – 55 LIN |
| Jan 10, 2025 | LIN 72 – 62 TNST |
| Feb 9, 2024 | TNST 65 – 55 LIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | LIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 10-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-10 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.1 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -6.2 (#264) | -11.0 (#329) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#298) | -1.59 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.93 (#305) | -2.58 (#332) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#297) | 0.433 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | LIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 26.1% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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