Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | BAY -375 ASU +295 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +5 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -6.9 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.3 (-22.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -5.3 (-0.3) | 154.4 (-13.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -6.4 (-1.4) | 157.6 (-16.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -5.3 (-0.3) | 158.4 (-17.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -5.0 (-0.0) | 155.9 (-14.9) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | ASU 83 – 79 BAY |
| Jan 12, 2025 | BAY 72 – 66 ASU |
| Nov 25, 2021 | BAY 75 – 63 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-7 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 78.3 |
| Massey | 12.2 (#44) | 8.3 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#65) | 1.85 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.19 (#59) | 2.27 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#100) | 0.562 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 37.5% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 30.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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