Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -12.0 Push |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +12 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -14.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (-5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -9.0 (+3.0) | 142.5 (-4.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -10.7 (+1.3) | 140.8 (-2.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -9.3 (+2.7) | 143.9 (-5.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -9.8 (+2.2) | 142.0 (-4.0) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | ASU 83 – 79 BAY |
| Feb 21, 2026 | BAY 73 – 68 ASU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | BAY 72 – 66 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 10-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 9-6 |
| Away | 8-3 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 16.3 (#9) | 2.1 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#68) | -0.41 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#61) | 0.46 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#78) | 0.463 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 42.5 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.8 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.88 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 39.3% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 12.5% | 14.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.2% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 30.5% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 79.9% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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