Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | ASU +230 BAY -280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +6 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | BAY -3.2 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (-8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -1.2 (-4.8) | 141.6 (-3.6) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -3.7 (-2.3) | 140.2 (-2.2) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -1.6 (-4.4) | 140.6 (-2.6) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -1.0 (-5.0) | 140.0 (-2.0) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | ASU 83 – 79 BAY |
| Feb 21, 2026 | BAY 73 – 68 ASU |
| Nov 25, 2021 | BAY 75 – 63 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 10-10 |
| Home | 5-9 | 13-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 10.5 (#54) | 17.7 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#29) | 2.55 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.15 (#38) | 3.22 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.636 (#20) | 0.617 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 37.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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