Betting Lines
| Spread | DAV -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | FOR -108 DAV -112 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +4 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | DAV -1.1 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.1 (-6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -0.3 (+4.3) | 128.9 (-6.9) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FOR -0.1 (+3.9) | 130.5 (-8.5) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -0.2 (+4.2) | 131.1 (-9.1) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -0.6 (+4.6) | 129.3 (-7.3) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | DAV 68 – 63 FOR |
| Feb 22, 2025 | DAV 80 – 69 FOR |
| Jan 11, 2025 | DAV 74 – 64 FOR |
| Mar 12, 2024 | FOR 71 – 63 DAV |
| Feb 21, 2024 | DAV 68 – 53 FOR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#168) | 3.8 (#115) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#212) | 0.67 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#194) | 0.83 (#103) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#201) | 0.549 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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