Betting Lines
| Spread | DAV -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | FOR +120 DAV -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAV +11 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | DAV -1.8 (-9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (-4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -0.9 (-10.1) | 147.0 (+2.0) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAV -1.8 (-9.2) | 145.9 (+3.1) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -1.8 (-9.2) | 147.6 (+1.4) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -1.2 (-9.8) | 147.3 (+1.7) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | FOR 63 – 59 DAV |
| Jan 22, 2026 | DAV 68 – 63 FOR |
| Jan 11, 2025 | DAV 74 – 64 FOR |
| Mar 12, 2024 | FOR 71 – 63 DAV |
| Feb 21, 2024 | DAV 68 – 53 FOR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 6-12 |
| Home | 8-8 | 11-6 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#221) | 1.6 (#135) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#220) | 0.20 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#220) | 0.40 (#142) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#224) | 0.506 (#173) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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