Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Atlantic Coast Conference · Littlejohn Coliseum · February 21, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread CLEM -8.5 Away covered
O/U 145.5 Under
Money CLEM -440 / FSU +340
Model Predictions
Spread Total CLEM win
Actual FSU +5 135 Lost
Massey CLEM -10.1 (-15.1) — —
Massey Totals — 147.6 (-12.6) —
Bradley-Terry — — 86% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 90% ✗
Baseline Plus ML CLEM -10.5 (-15.5) 145.7 (-10.7) 82% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ CLEM -10.7 (-15.7) 146.5 (-11.5) 83% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML CLEM -9.6 (-14.6) 143.2 (-8.2) 82% ✗
Baseline ML CLEM -9.6 (-14.6) 144.2 (-9.2) 81% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 15, 2025 CLEM 72 – 46 FSU
Jan 11, 2025 CLEM 77 – 57 FSU
Feb 25, 2024 CLEM 74 – 63 FSU
Jan 20, 2024 CLEM 78 – 67 FSU
Feb 16, 2023 CLEM 94 – 54 FSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings CLEM FSU
Overall 24-11 18-15
Conference 12-6 10-8
Home 13-3 11-6
Away 6-5 6-5
Neutral 5-3 1-4
Last 5 2-3 4-1
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 73.8 80.4
Avg Pts Against 66.7 77.9
Massey 14.6 (#37) 7.5 (#83)
Bradley-Terry 2.57 (#34) 1.23 (#80)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.16 (#38) 1.51 (#82)
RPI 0.601 (#33) 0.535 (#101)
Shooting & Four Factors CLEM FSU
FG% 46.1% 42.5%
3PT% 34.1% 31.7%
REB / G 35.0 36.8
OREB / G 9.4 12.4
AST / TO 1.32 1.29
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.4% 50.6%
TOV% 14.9% 15.3%
ORB% 29.0% 31.5%
FT Rate 27.1% 25.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.4% 52.3%
Opp TOV% 17.6% 19.2%
DRB% 74.8% 68.0%
Opp FT Rate 25.3% 23.7%

Game Analysis

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