Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | TOL -395 EMU +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +19 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -6.9 (+12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (+21.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -6.6 (+12.4) | 143.9 (+25.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -6.1 (+12.9) | 142.7 (+26.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -5.6 (+13.4) | 141.4 (+27.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -5.3 (+13.7) | 141.7 (+27.3) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2025 | EMU 80 – 73 TOL |
| Jan 8, 2025 | TOL 90 – 87 EMU |
| Feb 7, 2024 | TOL 91 – 87 EMU |
| Feb 12, 2023 | TOL 70 – 63 EMU |
| Jan 25, 2023 | TOL 84 – 79 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-9 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.8 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#157) | -3.6 (#222) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#164) | -0.90 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#158) | -1.03 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#119) | 0.448 (#279) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 64.7% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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