Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | EMU +500 TOL -800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +4 | 178 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -12.2 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (+30.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -11.0 (+7.0) | 146.3 (+31.7) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -12.2 (+8.2) | 144.1 (+33.9) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -11.6 (+7.6) | 145.6 (+32.4) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -10.9 (+6.9) | 146.1 (+31.9) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | TOL 94 – 75 EMU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | EMU 80 – 73 TOL |
| Jan 8, 2025 | TOL 90 – 87 EMU |
| Feb 12, 2023 | TOL 70 – 63 EMU |
| Jan 25, 2023 | TOL 84 – 79 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EMU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 14-4 |
| Home | 9-6 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-11 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 80.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -12.6 (#339) | 3.0 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.42 (#299) | 0.88 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.99 (#313) | 0.76 (#122) |
| RPI | 0.416 (#318) | 0.547 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EMU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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