Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | TOL -550 EMU +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +3 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -11.4 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.2 (+18.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -8.8 (-5.8) | 152.6 (+24.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -10.3 (-7.3) | 152.5 (+24.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -8.7 (-5.7) | 151.8 (+25.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -8.3 (-5.3) | 150.7 (+26.3) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | TOL 94 – 75 EMU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | EMU 80 – 73 TOL |
| Feb 7, 2024 | TOL 91 – 87 EMU |
| Feb 12, 2023 | TOL 70 – 63 EMU |
| Jan 25, 2023 | TOL 84 – 79 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 9-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 6-9 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.1 | 77.1 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#195) | -9.2 (#316) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#146) | -0.43 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#173) | -1.03 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#140) | 0.463 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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