Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Under |
| Money | TOL -8000 EMU +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +5 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -20.4 (-15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 174.4 (-11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -17.2 (-12.2) | 160.0 (+3.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -15.5 (-10.5) | 163.4 (-0.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -17.8 (-12.8) | 163.1 (-0.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -17.5 (-12.5) | 164.8 (-1.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | TOL 94 – 75 EMU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | EMU 80 – 73 TOL |
| Jan 8, 2025 | TOL 90 – 87 EMU |
| Feb 7, 2024 | TOL 91 – 87 EMU |
| Feb 12, 2023 | TOL 70 – 63 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-1 | 6-7 |
| Away | 10-4 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.9 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 81.3 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#94) | -11.5 (#342) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#106) | -2.16 (#339) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#110) | -2.66 (#340) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#84) | 0.385 (#348) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.7% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 56.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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