Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | EMU +150 TOL -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EMU +7 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -3.5 (+10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.9 (-7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -3.6 (+10.6) | 151.4 (+1.6) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -2.2 (+9.2) | 154.8 (-1.8) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -2.4 (+9.4) | 155.6 (-2.6) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -2.6 (+9.6) | 153.7 (-0.7) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | TOL 94 – 75 EMU |
| Jan 8, 2025 | TOL 90 – 87 EMU |
| Feb 7, 2024 | TOL 91 – 87 EMU |
| Feb 12, 2023 | TOL 70 – 63 EMU |
| Jan 25, 2023 | TOL 84 – 79 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EMU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 6-10 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 81.1 |
| Massey | -9.1 (#309) | -2.4 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#242) | 0.59 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#269) | 0.16 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#250) | 0.543 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EMU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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