Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Under |
| Money | EMU +500 TOL -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +7 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -9.7 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 173.6 (-40.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -8.9 (+1.9) | 162.2 (-29.2) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -9.5 (+2.5) | 165.1 (-32.1) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -8.3 (+1.3) | 165.8 (-32.8) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -8.1 (+1.1) | 162.8 (-29.8) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | TOL 94 – 75 EMU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | EMU 80 – 73 TOL |
| Jan 8, 2025 | TOL 90 – 87 EMU |
| Feb 7, 2024 | TOL 91 – 87 EMU |
| Jan 25, 2023 | TOL 84 – 79 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EMU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 16-2 |
| Home | 6-7 | 13-1 |
| Away | 2-13 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 84.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.3 | 76.6 |
| Massey | -8.3 (#310) | 5.1 (#95) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#323) | 0.98 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.08 (#324) | 1.08 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.415 (#326) | 0.547 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EMU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.5% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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