Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | HOU -285 ARIZ +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +7 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | ARIZ -0.4 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (-4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -3.6 (-10.6) | 135.2 (+3.8) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -1.8 (-8.8) | 137.0 (+2.0) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -3.1 (-10.1) | 139.4 (-0.4) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -1.3 (-8.3) | 139.4 (-0.4) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | ARIZ 79 – 74 HOU |
| Mar 15, 2025 | HOU 72 – 64 ARIZ |
| Feb 15, 2025 | HOU 62 – 58 ARIZ |
| Mar 25, 2022 | HOU 72 – 60 ARIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 36-3 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 16-2 |
| Home | 15-1 | 16-1 |
| Away | 6-3 | 9-1 |
| Neutral | 9-3 | 11-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.9 | 86.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.3 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 22.4 (#8) | 25.8 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.06 (#5) | 4.75 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.21 (#4) | 5.97 (#3) |
| RPI | 0.643 (#8) | 0.668 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 50.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 43.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.87 | 1.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 12.6% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 39.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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