Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | ARIZ +120 HOU -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +4 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | HOU -1.4 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.6 (-20.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -0.0 (-4.0) | 133.8 (-13.8) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -0.4 (-4.4) | 137.2 (-17.2) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -1.1 (-5.1) | 136.8 (-16.8) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -0.7 (-4.7) | 138.0 (-18.0) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | ARIZ 79 – 74 HOU |
| Feb 21, 2026 | ARIZ 73 – 66 HOU |
| Mar 15, 2025 | HOU 72 – 64 ARIZ |
| Mar 25, 2022 | HOU 72 – 60 ARIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 35-5 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 19-1 |
| Home | 13-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 6-5 | 10-0 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 9-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.5 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 58.6 |
| Massey | 20.0 (#8) | 24.6 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.68 (#28) | 3.32 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.48 (#27) | 4.49 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.607 (#26) | 0.635 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 39.4% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 38.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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