Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | SMU -1600 BC +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +24 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -17.3 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (+14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -16.4 (+7.6) | 145.8 (+18.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -15.8 (+8.2) | 145.6 (+18.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -15.4 (+8.6) | 145.2 (+18.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -15.6 (+8.4) | 147.7 (+16.3) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2024 | SMU 103 – 77 BC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-14 |
| Home | 15-3 | 10-7 |
| Away | 3-8 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.1 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 16.0 (#30) | 1.7 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#36) | -0.42 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.31 (#34) | -0.23 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#29) | 0.477 (#229) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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