Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | BC +290 SMU -380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +26 | 180 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -11.0 (-15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (+29.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -8.6 (-17.4) | 143.8 (+36.2) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -9.7 (-16.3) | 146.5 (+33.5) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -8.6 (-17.4) | 147.2 (+32.8) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -9.2 (-16.8) | 146.2 (+33.8) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SMU 94 – 70 BC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 13-7 |
| Home | 9-8 | 13-6 |
| Away | 0-10 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#209) | 12.6 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#148) | 2.17 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#169) | 3.21 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#144) | 0.575 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 42.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 14.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 39.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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