I'm gonna tell you how it's gonna be. "Not Fade Away"-The Rolling Stones
Conference USA · Bernard G. Johnson Coliseum · February 21, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread SHSU -6.5 Away covered
O/U 147.5 Over
Money SHSU -325 / JXST +260
Model Predictions
Spread Total SHSU win
Actual SHSU +4 160 Won
Massey SHSU -10.1 (-6.1)
Massey Totals 145.8 (+14.2)
Bradley-Terry 87%
Weighted B-T 90%
Efficiency Plus ML SHSU -8.2 (-4.2) 139.2 (+20.8) 81%
Baseline Tuned ML SHSU -9.2 (-5.2) 140.6 (+19.4) 83%
Baseline ML SHSU -9.1 (-5.1) 141.2 (+18.8) 83%
Baseline Plus ML SHSU -10.0 (-6.0) 142.7 (+17.3) 83%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 15, 2026 SHSU 7762 JXST
Feb 14, 2025 SHSU 6661 JXST
Jan 18, 2025 JXST 7062 SHSU
Mar 9, 2024 SHSU 8173 JXST
Feb 9, 2024 JXST 7968 SHSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SHSU JXST
Overall 22-12 15-17
Conference 13-7 10-10
Home 13-1 10-7
Away 6-10 5-8
Neutral 3-1 0-2
Last 5 4-1 2-3
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 80.0 69.9
Avg Pts Against 76.9 70.6
Massey 4.2 (#110) -3.0 (#213)
Bradley-Terry 0.75 (#97) -0.66 (#228)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.93 (#97) -0.72 (#221)
RPI 0.552 (#74) 0.475 (#237)
Shooting & Four Factors SHSU JXST
FG% 45.7% 42.6%
3PT% 37.1% 35.1%
REB / G 38.2 34.4
OREB / G 12.6 10.3
AST / TO 1.23 0.99
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.6% 49.5%
TOV% 17.0% 17.6%
ORB% 35.0% 29.9%
FT Rate 24.3% 30.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.4% 49.3%
Opp TOV% 16.5% 16.4%
DRB% 68.9% 70.9%
Opp FT Rate 25.9% 28.0%

Game Analysis

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