Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | SFA -1000 NICH +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +3 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -15.2 (-12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (+12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -11.6 (-8.6) | 143.6 (+15.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -14.1 (-11.1) | 142.9 (+16.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -15.1 (-12.1) | 143.7 (+15.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -15.4 (-12.4) | 142.5 (+16.5) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2026 | SFA 79 – 62 NICH |
| Mar 1, 2025 | NICH 94 – 70 SFA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | NICH 73 – 61 SFA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 20-2 | 12-10 |
| Home | 15-1 | 6-6 |
| Away | 12-4 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 75.7 |
| Massey | 6.9 (#88) | -5.3 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#59) | -0.89 (#249) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#61) | -1.21 (#257) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#70) | 0.476 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 29.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 31.0% |
Game Analysis
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