Betting Lines
| Spread | NICH -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | NICH -185 SFA +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NICH +12 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | NICH -6.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.2 (+2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NICH -4.1 (+7.9) | 133.5 (+0.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NICH -5.2 (+6.8) | 133.2 (+0.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NICH -5.1 (+6.9) | 133.8 (+0.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NICH -6.9 (+5.1) | 132.7 (+1.3) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SFA 81 – 78 NICH |
| Jan 20, 2026 | SFA 79 – 62 NICH |
| Mar 1, 2025 | NICH 94 – 70 SFA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NICH | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 7-13 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-8 |
| Away | 8-8 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 69.4 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#202) | -4.8 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#176) | -1.40 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#194) | -1.61 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#171) | 0.444 (#275) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NICH | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 23.8% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 25.6% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 37.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.1% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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