Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | NICH +180 SFA -218 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +17 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -6.0 (-11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (-5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -3.7 (-13.3) | 139.2 (+1.8) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -5.5 (-11.5) | 139.9 (+1.1) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -5.4 (-11.6) | 140.8 (+0.2) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -5.0 (-12.0) | 140.2 (+0.8) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SFA 81 – 78 NICH |
| Mar 1, 2025 | NICH 94 – 70 SFA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | NICH 73 – 61 SFA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NICH | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 12-10 | 20-2 |
| Home | 6-6 | 15-1 |
| Away | 7-12 | 12-4 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.7 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#207) | 6.5 (#95) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#202) | 1.23 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#210) | 1.66 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#195) | 0.536 (#102) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NICH | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 29.2 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.9% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.1% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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