Why don't you get back into bed. "Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3" - Ian Dury & the Blockheads
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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83–46 on winners spread MAE 8.9 129 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Rice @ Charlotte +6.3 143.1 77% 70–80 ✓
Fairfield @ Iona +4.3 142.9 70% 71–70 ✗
Providence @ Villanova +8.3 160.3 81% 73–87 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Quinnipiac +8.8 151.6 83% 98–91 ✗
Dartmouth @ Yale +16.5 151.8 88% 68–83 ✓
Cleveland State @ Green Bay +9.5 153.6 84% 89–82 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Detroit Mercy -3.2 154.8 43% 77–90 ✗
Marist @ Canisius -11.6 124.4 17% 88–86 ✓
Rider @ Manhattan +5.3 144.3 75% 90–95 ✓
Harvard @ Brown -2.5 134.2 38% 69–59 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Columbia +4.8 149.9 69% 67–72 ✓
Michigan @ Michigan State -0.6 146.0 36% 83–71 ✓
Dayton @ Saint Louis +14.6 148.2 88% 71–102 ✓
Wright State @ Milwaukee -2.9 148.1 41% 76–69 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Saint Peter's +6.5 133.5 73% 58–66 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ VCU +20.5 150.1 91% 75–89 ✓
Boise State @ Grand Canyon +1.1 139.1 53% 69–86 ✓
UNLV @ Nevada +11.3 148.4 84% 76–89 ✓
Duke @ Virginia Tech -11.8 144.4 16% 72–58 ✓
Cincinnati @ Houston +13.6 132.7 86% 54–76 ✓
Texas Tech @ UCF -1.3 155.6 39% 80–88 ✗
Pittsburgh @ Clemson +13.0 136.1 86% 52–63 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Winthrop +7.4 143.9 78% 71–84 ✓
Marquette @ Seton Hall +9.7 137.4 81% 64–69 ✓
Georgetown @ Butler +7.6 149.7 76% 77–64 ✗
NC State @ Wake Forest -4.2 154.0 34% 96–78 ✓
Ball State @ Toledo +10.3 141.2 83% 55–73 ✓
Campbell @ William & Mary +9.7 156.4 82% 104–96 ✗
Stony Brook @ Elon +3.5 150.2 67% 72–68 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ The Citadel +0.0 146.1 48% 66–71 ✓
Valparaiso @ Indiana State +0.2 142.4 52% 76–72 ✗
Holy Cross @ Army +0.5 143.1 54% 68–69 ✓
San Diego State @ Utah State +5.7 145.0 75% 66–71 ✓
DePaul @ Xavier +3.9 146.1 71% 66–68 ✓
Robert Morris @ Purdue Fort Wayne +0.9 148.2 57% 71–83 ✓
Stonehill @ Le Moyne +6.3 135.5 73% 65–54 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Wagner +2.7 134.3 62% 72–75 ✓
LSU @ South Carolina -2.1 148.5 36% 92–87 ✓
Texas A&M @ Georgia +5.1 174.1 71% 92–77 ✗
Virginia @ Boston College -11.5 137.6 17% 73–66 ✓
Arizona @ Arizona State -12.7 157.3 14% 87–74 ✓
North Carolina @ Georgia Tech -8.4 149.7 21% 91–75 ✓
SMU @ Louisville +7.6 159.0 80% 74–88 ✓
Colgate @ Lehigh -2.8 148.4 43% 76–77 ✗
Lafayette @ American University +7.6 138.4 76% 67–65 ✗
Fordham @ George Washington +13.9 140.2 87% 79–65 ✗
Ohio State @ Wisconsin +3.3 155.6 71% 82–92 ✓
Boston University @ Bucknell -0.5 144.8 42% 97–103 ✗
Radford @ Presbyterian +2.7 148.8 60% 93–84 ✗
Mercyhurst @ Chicago State -4.6 128.1 25% 74–78 ✗
Ohio @ Buffalo +4.7 152.0 74% 95–83 ✗
Long Island University @ Central Connecticut -0.8 139.6 41% 80–59 ✓
Maine @ UMass Lowell +2.7 129.3 48% 77–91 ✓
Charleston @ Northeastern -2.1 153.6 40% 89–84 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Drexel +5.8 135.2 71% 60–61 ✓
Hampton @ Towson +5.0 127.0 67% 50–82 ✓
Hofstra @ Monmouth -1.7 142.1 42% 73–57 ✓
VMI @ Mercer +17.6 151.0 90% 81–95 ✓
Old Dominion @ Texas State +0.3 140.6 57% 64–81 ✓
Texas @ Oklahoma -1.1 153.9 51% 79–69 ✓
Queens University @ Bellarmine -2.1 161.6 47% 75–78 ✗
North Alabama @ Stetson +3.7 144.1 65% 68–66 ✗
Lipscomb @ North Florida -8.5 161.2 18% 100–94 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ La Salle -0.1 135.6 43% 67–58 ✓
High Point @ Longwood -9.5 157.1 20% 71–59 ✓
Fresno State @ Air Force -10.8 132.5 14% 79–62 ✓
Oral Roberts @ South Dakota State +11.1 145.2 86% 72–95 ✓
Marshall @ Arkansas State +0.9 158.7 61% 70–61 ✗
James Madison @ Southern Miss -0.3 143.0 44% 65–73 ✗
Idaho State @ Weber State +2.6 148.1 61% 79–81 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Jacksonville +1.0 143.7 54% 68–49 ✗
California Baptist @ UT Arlington +1.5 127.8 51% 87–77 ✗
Jacksonville State @ Missouri State +2.5 136.4 62% 67–74 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Miami (OH) +16.9 150.9 88% 61–85 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Alabama State -1.1 151.4 40% 69–54 ✓
Mississippi State @ Missouri +5.9 150.0 76% 79–84 ✓
Lindenwood @ Morehead State -0.8 147.9 50% 79–78 ✓
Evansville @ Northern Iowa +10.6 126.5 85% 55–71 ✓
Norfolk State @ Howard +5.1 140.5 66% 60–88 ✓
Baylor @ West Virginia +2.1 138.8 64% 63–53 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Mississippi Valley State -11.1 136.5 14% 78–70 ✓
Grambling @ Jackson State -5.0 144.4 31% 69–66 ✓
California @ Miami +6.5 142.4 74% 86–85 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Navy +11.3 138.9 85% 71–87 ✓
Omaha @ Denver +1.6 153.6 52% 84–82 ✗
New Hampshire @ Bryant -1.1 130.4 37% 84–92 ✗
Hawai'i @ Long Beach State -8.5 143.4 22% 89–82 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Louisiana -1.8 140.2 46% 60–69 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Northern Colorado +4.7 157.6 75% 71–74 ✓
Southern Utah @ Abilene Christian +4.2 143.6 68% 79–76 ✗
Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee +3.6 139.5 66% 65–60 ✗
Little Rock @ Tennessee Tech -0.3 137.8 43% 77–87 ✗
BYU @ Kansas +3.8 153.2 70% 82–90 ✓
Davidson @ Richmond +3.8 138.9 69% 79–54 ✗
Morgan State @ Coppin State -2.9 144.7 28% 89–80 ✓
Houston Christian @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +8.3 130.7 78% 71–73 ✓
NJIT @ Vermont +10.4 137.8 85% 79–77 ✗
App State @ Troy +7.0 139.7 74% 66–44 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Central Arkansas +7.7 150.7 81% 81–90 ✓
Austin Peay @ West Georgia -7.6 144.4 23% 81–78 ✓
UT Martin @ Western Illinois -9.9 130.4 16% 84–44 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Eastern Illinois -1.4 132.1 43% 77–59 ✓
Southern @ Alcorn State -4.5 144.6 34% 73–78 ✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Delaware State -3.5 124.5 26% 57–65 ✗
Indiana @ UCLA +2.4 139.2 66% 98–97 ✗
UC Davis @ Cal State Bakersfield -6.9 150.7 25% 80–72 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Incarnate Word -0.8 134.6 39% 106–93 ✓
Montana State @ Portland State +2.2 135.6 65% 54–63 ✓
Utah Tech @ Tarleton State +2.4 151.8 62% 65–59 ✗
New Mexico State @ Kennesaw State +2.0 154.0 62% 53–76 ✓
Texas Southern @ Prairie View A&M +0.6 153.6 47% 78–85 ✓
Florida A&M @ Alabama A&M +3.6 134.9 63% 65–72 ✓
Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt +14.5 150.9 87% 68–71 ✓
Bradley @ Drake +2.5 149.9 66% 87–73 ✗
Portland @ Washington State +6.1 148.3 78% 74–104 ✓
Oregon State @ San Diego +2.0 148.1 62% 78–76 ✗
Notre Dame @ Syracuse +2.9 143.7 65% 72–86 ✓
Dartmouth @ Brown +0.2 141.8 48% 77–70 ✗
Princeton @ Columbia +8.3 141.4 81% 80–68 ✗
North Dakota State @ South Dakota -7.0 155.3 25% 89–84 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Massachusetts +4.9 144.4 75% 67–70 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Cornell +3.5 160.7 66% 91–81 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Stephen F. Austin +12.5 134.2 86% 58–85 ✓
Northwestern State @ New Orleans +5.0 150.8 60% 64–75 ✓
Nicholls @ East Texas A&M +0.0 143.1 51% 72–68 ✗
Oklahoma State @ Utah -1.7 160.1 40% 81–69 ✓
Stanford @ Florida State +0.4 147.6 57% 80–88 ✓
George Mason @ St. Bonaventure -3.0 142.3 37% 77–73 ✓
Kentucky @ Arkansas +6.7 158.2 76% 85–77 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.