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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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92–33 on winners spread MAE 8.2 125 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Villanova @ Marquette	+9.4	140.6	80%	74–87	✓
Long Island University @ Saint Francis	-0.7	131.8	47%	64–74	✗
Wagner @ Mercyhurst	+1.4	123.9	63%	66–71	✓
Chicago State @ Stonehill	+8.2	134.4	83%	73–75	✓
Central Connecticut @ Le Moyne	-6.8	140.0	24%	93–70	✓
Milwaukee @ Northern Kentucky	-2.9	138.0	41%	79–59	✓
Kent State @ Ohio	+0.2	140.6	51%	59–61	✓
Saint Joseph's @ Dayton	+5.8	143.4	76%	72–77	✓
Michigan @ Purdue	+5.5	144.4	74%	64–91	✓
Penn State @ Iowa	+2.7	161.5	64%	75–76	✓
St. Bonaventure @ VCU	+8.7	133.0	80%	61–75	✓
UCLA @ Washington	-4.1	141.0	32%	65–60	✓
SMU @ NC State	-2.3	142.3	43%	63–57	✓
Campbell @ Hofstra	+6.5	131.3	67%	69–67	✗
North Carolina A&T @ Stony Brook	+2.7	140.5	63%	74–89	✓
Pittsburgh @ Syracuse	-7.3	150.0	22%	77–73	✓
Howard @ Norfolk State	+9.3	147.4	85%	75–92	✓
Georgetown @ Providence	+2.9	136.0	62%	68–78	✓
Mississippi State @ South Carolina	-4.7	139.4	27%	65–60	✓
South Florida @ East Carolina	+3.3	145.6	68%	55–64	✓
Northern Iowa @ Indiana State	-4.6	148.2	34%	74–56	✓
Bucknell @ Boston University	+0.5	129.4	51%	82–85	✓
UMBC @ Vermont	+3.8	141.8	72%	80–63	✗
Detroit Mercy @ Wright State	+12.0	143.0	88%	50–67	✓
Jacksonville @ Queens University	+0.3	141.5	46%	87–77	✗
UNC Greensboro @ VMI	-8.3	141.5	21%	60–57	✓
Western Carolina @ The Citadel	+0.7	136.8	48%	80–78	✗
Marist @ Canisius	-7.6	131.4	26%	70–47	✓
Siena @ Iona	+2.2	137.3	70%	68–72	✓
Michigan State @ Rutgers	-5.5	147.2	24%	81–74	✓
Seton Hall @ Creighton	+14.1	137.1	88%	54–79	✓
Iowa State @ Arizona State	-6.8	143.5	24%	76–61	✓
Winthrop @ High Point	+9.6	159.6	82%	62–84	✓
Rhode Island @ La Salle	-0.6	149.8	57%	64–70	✗
Saint Louis @ George Washington	+2.7	143.4	69%	61–67	✓
Illinois State @ Bradley	+10.4	142.0	83%	57–61	✓
Holy Cross @ Loyola Maryland	+2.0	139.1	60%	70–65	✗
Cornell @ Princeton	+3.7	153.6	65%	85–76	✗
Harvard @ Yale	+15.8	142.2	88%	55–84	✓
Columbia @ Pennsylvania	-2.1	149.0	43%	78–93	✗
Dartmouth @ Brown	+5.9	147.1	72%	84–83	✗
New Hampshire @ UMass Lowell	+11.5	147.3	85%	80–97	✓
Binghamton @ Bryant	+10.5	147.8	85%	69–83	✓
Oakland @ Robert Morris	-0.4	138.6	51%	71–73	✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ IU Indianapolis	-6.6	156.1	25%	91–80	✓
Delaware @ Drexel	+4.9	142.1	73%	54–67	✓
Monmouth @ William & Mary	+6.8	152.0	73%	73–78	✓
North Florida @ West Georgia	-3.8	162.3	43%	72–92	✗
Lipscomb @ Central Arkansas	-13.6	141.4	15%	68–55	✓
Miami (OH) @ Akron	+7.3	155.0	75%	75–102	✓
Buffalo @ Eastern Michigan	+6.6	151.0	79%	77–90	✓
Rider @ Quinnipiac	+9.6	141.3	85%	64–75	✓
Sacred Heart @ Niagara	+0.2	140.6	47%	86–77	✗
Boston College @ North Carolina	+15.5	148.9	90%	96–102	✓
Kentucky @ Vanderbilt	-0.8	161.7	55%	69–74	✗
Texas A&M @ Texas	+1.4	139.7	56%	69–70	✓
Tulane @ Rice	+0.9	141.2	49%	82–71	✗
New Mexico @ UNLV	-2.8	144.3	33%	75–73	✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Longwood	+12.0	154.0	88%	54–80	✓
Colorado @ Arizona	+15.1	149.0	88%	63–78	✓
Southern Illinois @ UIC	+6.4	151.1	73%	89–85	✗
Stetson @ Bellarmine	-1.7	144.6	43%	81–76	✓
Northern Arizona @ Idaho	+1.7	142.8	56%	80–72	✗
Marshall @ Georgia Southern	-2.7	150.0	44%	71–67	✓
App State @ UL Monroe	-12.4	131.4	13%	66–58	✓
Texas State @ Arkansas State	+8.8	147.9	81%	65–80	✓
Green Bay @ Cleveland State	+12.1	141.3	87%	66–81	✓
Georgia @ Florida	+11.2	141.7	86%	59–89	✓
UNC Asheville @ Charleston Southern	-3.4	151.2	35%	69–61	✓
Western Kentucky @ Sam Houston	+0.2	151.2	53%	75–66	✗
Oregon @ Minnesota	-4.4	141.2	29%	69–77	✗
TCU @ UCF	+2.7	146.8	60%	58–85	✓
Temple @ UTSA	-2.1	155.4	46%	79–88	✗
Evansville @ Valparaiso	+5.8	138.9	71%	78–68	✗
Drake @ Missouri State	-9.8	126.2	16%	69–62	✓
Belmont @ Murray State	+2.9	150.2	63%	95–77	✗
Utah State @ Air Force	-15.1	136.3	12%	87–58	✓
Colgate @ American University	+0.3	136.3	49%	77–81	✓
NJIT @ UAlbany	+9.6	136.0	85%	62–68	✓
Weber State @ Sacramento State	-2.7	133.0	30%	87–81	✓
DePaul @ Butler	+7.3	147.9	81%	69–86	✓
James Madison @ Georgia State	-6.6	143.5	25%	86–79	✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Eastern Kentucky	-1.1	140.7	52%	77–81	✗
UT Arlington @ Abilene Christian	-0.2	139.9	44%	79–76	✓
Chattanooga @ East Tennessee State	+5.5	141.9	70%	71–63	✗
Manhattan @ Mount St. Mary's	+3.8	147.3	69%	74–64	✗
Prairie View A&M @ Alabama State	+8.2	154.3	78%	63–66	✓
Delaware State @ Maryland Eastern Shore	-5.0	142.8	25%	73–66	✓
Coppin State @ Morgan State	+6.7	148.6	81%	64–80	✓
Duke @ Wake Forest	-11.1	136.5	20%	63–56	✓
Radford @ Presbyterian	-1.2	136.1	35%	82–69	✓
Baylor @ Utah	-2.3	140.9	38%	76–61	✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Jackson State	-0.5	141.6	54%	81–86	✗
Nicholls @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+4.9	149.4	71%	57–61	✓
Incarnate Word @ SE Louisiana	+6.3	139.7	77%	63–86	✓
Furman @ Mercer	-1.2	148.6	46%	79–74	✓
Ball State @ Northern Illinois	-6.5	144.3	28%	66–76	✗
Tennessee Tech @ UT Martin	+5.5	148.1	78%	89–85	✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Western Illinois	-3.2	129.7	39%	72–51	✓
Morehead State @ SIU Edwardsville	+2.0	133.9	58%	54–65	✓
Southern Indiana @ Eastern Illinois	-0.0	137.3	40%	64–60	✓
South Carolina State @ North Carolina Central	-1.4	143.3	53%	77–82	✗
Florida A&M @ Alcorn State	+4.4	137.3	64%	65–64	✗
Little Rock @ Lindenwood	-3.1	134.7	34%	78–46	✓
Clemson @ Virginia Tech	-7.7	134.7	19%	72–57	✓
Idaho State @ Portland State	+1.2	137.1	53%	59–76	✓
Northern Colorado @ Eastern Washington	-3.2	147.7	38%	67–62	✓
Long Beach State @ Cal Poly	+4.6	148.4	64%	69–78	✓
North Dakota @ North Dakota State	+11.3	159.0	84%	82–87	✓
Texas Southern @ Alabama A&M	-4.8	146.4	25%	82–78	✓
McNeese @ UT Rio Grande Valley	-9.1	141.2	17%	93–63	✓
Ole Miss @ Missouri	+2.1	142.6	69%	75–83	✓
West Virginia @ Kansas State	-2.9	136.9	40%	60–73	✗
Northwestern State @ Stephen F. Austin	+1.6	129.0	54%	57–54	✗
Davidson @ Richmond	-1.7	138.2	38%	72–66	✓
Houston Christian @ New Orleans	-1.8	144.2	37%	86–76	✓
South Alabama @ Troy	+3.1	134.1	67%	55–65	✓
Santa Clara @ Oregon State	+2.6	150.5	64%	69–83	✓
South Dakota @ South Dakota State	+12.5	164.5	88%	71–90	✓
Wofford @ Samford	+6.6	146.6	76%	61–77	✓
Liberty @ Florida International	-5.7	134.6	30%	82–59	✓
Houston @ Kansas	-0.7	125.9	45%	92–86	✓
Notre Dame @ Virginia	+1.1	127.8	56%	74–59	✗
Southern @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff	-12.2	146.9	13%	83–67	✓
Middle Tennessee @ Louisiana Tech	+2.0	142.2	61%	69–75	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.