Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | VMI +300 UNCG -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VMI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +3 | 117 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCG -7.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (-20.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -7.4 (+4.4) | 139.5 (-22.5) | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -8.3 (+5.3) | 141.5 (-24.5) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -6.6 (+3.6) | 139.8 (-22.8) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -6.9 (+3.9) | 140.6 (-23.6) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UNCG 84 – 70 VMI |
| Feb 12, 2026 | UNCG 92 – 71 VMI |
| Jan 21, 2026 | UNCG 85 – 78 VMI |
| Mar 8, 2025 | VMI 64 – 57 UNCG |
| Feb 13, 2025 | UNCG 80 – 54 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VMI | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 7-7 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-10 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#300) | 2.4 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#306) | 0.22 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.57 (#280) | 0.27 (#154) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#307) | 0.519 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VMI | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.8% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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