Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | UNCG -550 VMI +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +26 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -11.3 (+14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.6 (-2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -8.8 (+17.2) | 135.0 (-1.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -11.6 (+14.4) | 134.9 (-0.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -8.8 (+17.2) | 133.7 (+0.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -9.1 (+16.9) | 133.6 (+0.4) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UNCG 84 – 70 VMI |
| Feb 12, 2026 | UNCG 92 – 71 VMI |
| Jan 21, 2026 | UNCG 85 – 78 VMI |
| Mar 8, 2025 | VMI 64 – 57 UNCG |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UNCG 60 – 57 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 8-6 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#148) | -7.4 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#161) | -1.26 (#284) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#160) | -1.23 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#134) | 0.450 (#267) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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