Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | UNCG -310 VMI +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +14 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -8.2 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -7.7 (+6.3) | 149.0 (+5.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -7.3 (+6.7) | 150.8 (+3.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -7.7 (+6.3) | 149.6 (+4.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -7.6 (+6.4) | 148.3 (+5.7) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | UNCG 92 – 71 VMI |
| Jan 21, 2026 | UNCG 85 – 78 VMI |
| Mar 8, 2025 | VMI 64 – 57 UNCG |
| Feb 13, 2025 | UNCG 80 – 54 VMI |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UNCG 60 – 57 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 1-17 |
| Home | 8-6 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-9 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L17 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.9 | 83.2 |
| Massey | -9.7 (#308) | -17.8 (#358) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#276) | -3.06 (#357) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.68 (#284) | -3.64 (#355) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#271) | 0.368 (#362) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.5% | 57.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 63.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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