Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | UNCG -600 VMI +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VMI +7 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCG -10.4 (-17.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.9 (-14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -8.4 (-15.4) | 136.5 (-15.5) | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -9.8 (-16.8) | 139.2 (-18.2) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -8.3 (-15.3) | 138.0 (-17.0) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -9.2 (-16.2) | 138.7 (-17.7) | 81% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UNCG 84 – 70 VMI |
| Feb 12, 2026 | UNCG 92 – 71 VMI |
| Jan 21, 2026 | UNCG 85 – 78 VMI |
| Feb 13, 2025 | UNCG 80 – 54 VMI |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UNCG 60 – 57 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 8-6 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#138) | -9.0 (#310) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#150) | -1.37 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#153) | -1.43 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#136) | 0.434 (#309) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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