Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | UNCG -440 VMI +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +21 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -10.2 (+10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.0 (+8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -8.8 (+12.2) | 150.3 (+12.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -10.0 (+11.0) | 148.1 (+14.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -9.1 (+11.9) | 149.9 (+13.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -9.8 (+11.2) | 148.9 (+14.1) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UNCG 84 – 70 VMI |
| Jan 21, 2026 | UNCG 85 – 78 VMI |
| Mar 8, 2025 | VMI 64 – 57 UNCG |
| Feb 13, 2025 | UNCG 80 – 54 VMI |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UNCG 60 – 57 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 1-17 |
| Home | 8-6 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-9 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L17 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.9 | 83.2 |
| Massey | -10.3 (#310) | -17.5 (#358) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#291) | -2.92 (#355) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.89 (#298) | -3.56 (#353) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#284) | 0.369 (#359) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 38.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 60.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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