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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
37–12 on winners
spread MAE 9.1
49 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-9.7 | 149.4 | 17% | 69–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.8 | 144.0 | 73% | 71–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.4 | 135.7 | 53% | 47–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.6 | 135.0 | 85% | 58–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.7 | 133.5 | 58% | 52–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.7 | 148.0 | 60% | 76–62 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.7 | 140.5 | 86% | 62–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.6 | 144.2 | 85% | 84–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.2 | 143.2 | 68% | 52–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.6 | 130.5 | 32% | 75–54 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.4 | 132.0 | 56% | 58–67 | ✓ |
|
|
-12.7 | 124.9 | 12% | 65–54 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.8 | 143.0 | 42% | 72–76 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.8 | 143.6 | 50% | 67–59 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.8 | 143.7 | 28% | 80–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-15.1 | 164.3 | 12% | 105–62 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.3 | 146.2 | 47% | 68–65 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.7 | 150.2 | 30% | 84–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.3 | 136.1 | 81% | 51–53 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.3 | 163.0 | 87% | 73–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.5 | 148.1 | 84% | 94–98 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.5 | 145.3 | 69% | 65–62 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.8 | 138.8 | 37% | 76–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.1 | 141.7 | 60% | 70–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.6 | 132.0 | 29% | 83–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.2 | 146.8 | 16% | 79–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.6 | 147.3 | 69% | 71–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.9 | 136.8 | 56% | 65–59 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.2 | 143.7 | 48% | 83–79 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.0 | 131.3 | 63% | 69–50 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.3 | 142.6 | 87% | 55–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.5 | 148.3 | 85% | 54–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.9 | 144.6 | 89% | 69–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.8 | 142.5 | 80% | 44–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.2 | 135.9 | 59% | 70–66 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.1 | 134.9 | 81% | 52–80 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.3 | 144.1 | 38% | 63–65 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.0 | 147.0 | 35% | 79–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.4 | 148.6 | 81% | 55–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.9 | 156.5 | 82% | 77–100 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.0 | 126.4 | 49% | 80–85 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.8 | 133.1 | 87% | 64–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.5 | 138.2 | 83% | 64–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.0 | 128.3 | 51% | 68–66 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.1 | 141.8 | 58% | 65–54 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.1 | 152.4 | 86% | 74–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.7 | 143.5 | 90% | 54–64 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.1 | 147.2 | 39% | 77–84 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.0 | 143.7 | 58% | 66–53 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.