Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | IU +120 MD -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +1 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | MD -6.8 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.3 (+6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -4.0 (+3.0) | 147.0 (+10.0) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -3.8 (+2.8) | 147.4 (+9.6) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -4.1 (+3.1) | 147.8 (+9.2) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -3.8 (+2.8) | 149.7 (+7.3) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | IU 84 – 66 MD |
| Mar 3, 2024 | IU 83 – 78 MD |
| Dec 2, 2023 | IU 65 – 53 MD |
| Mar 11, 2023 | IU 70 – 60 MD |
| Feb 1, 2023 | MD 66 – 55 IU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-4 | 17-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 81.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 9.2 (#64) | 19.4 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#48) | 2.30 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.42 (#53) | 3.52 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#40) | 0.575 (#55) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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