Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | MD +295 IU -375 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +18 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | IU -12.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (-0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -11.0 (-7.0) | 146.5 (+3.5) | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IU -8.1 (-9.9) | 148.7 (+1.3) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -10.1 (-7.9) | 145.5 (+4.5) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IU -11.3 (-6.7) | 145.7 (+4.3) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 26, 2025 | MD 79 – 78 IU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | IU 83 – 78 MD |
| Dec 2, 2023 | IU 65 – 53 MD |
| Mar 11, 2023 | IU 70 – 60 MD |
| Feb 1, 2023 | MD 66 – 55 IU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | IU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 9-11 |
| Home | 7-8 | 14-4 |
| Away | 2-10 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 78.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#161) | 17.0 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#173) | 1.67 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.00 (#171) | 2.29 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#152) | 0.584 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | IU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 57.8% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 33.9% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 43.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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