Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | IU -140 MD +118 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +12 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | IU -4.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.7 (-15.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IU -2.9 (+9.1) | 137.2 (-19.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -3.1 (+8.9) | 136.8 (-18.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IU -3.0 (+9.0) | 135.8 (-17.8) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -3.2 (+8.8) | 136.6 (-18.6) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | IU 84 – 66 MD |
| Jan 26, 2025 | MD 79 – 78 IU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | IU 83 – 78 MD |
| Mar 11, 2023 | IU 70 – 60 MD |
| Feb 1, 2023 | MD 66 – 55 IU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 7-13 |
| Home | 12-5 | 11-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 65.9 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#147) | 2.9 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.56 (#28) | -0.46 (#224) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.13 (#20) | -0.26 (#208) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#65) | 0.444 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.0% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 24.1% | 23.8% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 37.1% | 31.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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