Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | IU -150 MD +126 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +10 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | IU -0.2 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.9 (-5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -1.1 (+11.1) | 135.4 (-5.4) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -0.7 (+10.7) | 133.5 (-3.5) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -0.3 (+10.3) | 137.4 (-7.4) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MD -0.5 (+10.5) | 138.7 (-8.7) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | IU 84 – 66 MD |
| Jan 26, 2025 | MD 79 – 78 IU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | IU 83 – 78 MD |
| Dec 2, 2023 | IU 65 – 53 MD |
| Feb 1, 2023 | MD 66 – 55 IU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 16-1 |
| Away | 5-7 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 63.5 |
| Massey | 12.8 (#23) | 12.6 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.31 (#23) | 1.94 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.78 (#27) | 2.58 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#32) | 0.581 (#42) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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