Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | MD -167 IU +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +11 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | MD -0.5 (+10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (-18.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -1.9 (+9.1) | 136.6 (-15.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -2.1 (+8.9) | 136.7 (-15.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -1.6 (+9.4) | 137.4 (-16.4) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -1.8 (+9.2) | 136.8 (-15.8) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | IU 84 – 66 MD |
| Jan 26, 2025 | MD 79 – 78 IU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | IU 83 – 78 MD |
| Dec 2, 2023 | IU 65 – 53 MD |
| Mar 11, 2023 | IU 70 – 60 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | IU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 16-1 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.5 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 11.0 (#37) | 14.1 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#44) | 2.28 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.33 (#45) | 2.91 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#42) | 0.590 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | IU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 50.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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