Betting Lines
| Spread | PEPP -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | PEPP -300 PAC +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PEPP +16 | 104 | Won |
| Massey | PEPP -8.7 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.9 (-44.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PEPP -6.9 (+9.1) | 144.0 (-40.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PEPP -7.8 (+8.2) | 142.5 (-38.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PEPP -6.9 (+9.1) | 143.7 (-39.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PEPP -6.1 (+9.9) | 143.5 (-39.5) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | PAC 92 – 59 PEPP |
| Jan 5, 2026 | PAC 74 – 69 PEPP |
| Jan 5, 2025 | PEPP 87 – 70 PAC |
| Mar 7, 2024 | PEPP 102 – 43 PAC |
| Feb 22, 2024 | PEPP 89 – 70 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-22 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 4-14 |
| Home | 7-9 | 5-10 |
| Away | 2-11 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 77.2 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#206) | -7.6 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#260) | -1.95 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#240) | -2.52 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#260) | 0.415 (#317) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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