Betting Lines
| Spread | PAC -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | PAC -700 PEPP +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PAC +5 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | PAC -14.2 (-9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (+9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PAC -9.6 (-4.6) | 135.0 (+8.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PAC -10.1 (-5.1) | 135.7 (+7.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PAC -10.7 (-5.7) | 136.5 (+6.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PAC -11.3 (-6.3) | 137.2 (+5.8) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | PAC 92 – 59 PEPP |
| Jan 26, 2025 | PEPP 60 – 44 PAC |
| Jan 5, 2025 | PEPP 87 – 70 PAC |
| Mar 7, 2024 | PEPP 102 – 43 PAC |
| Feb 22, 2024 | PEPP 89 – 70 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-3 | 7-10 |
| Away | 4-11 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 79.7 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#116) | -6.6 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#125) | -1.38 (#283) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#140) | -1.54 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#111) | 0.431 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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