Betting Lines
| Spread | PAC -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | PAC -120 PEPP +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PEPP +17 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | PEPP -0.8 (-16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (+11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PEPP -2.7 (-14.3) | 146.4 (+10.6) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PEPP -1.9 (-15.1) | 143.8 (+13.2) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PEPP -1.9 (-15.1) | 145.3 (+11.7) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PEPP -2.2 (-14.8) | 146.0 (+11.0) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | PAC 92 – 59 PEPP |
| Jan 5, 2026 | PAC 74 – 69 PEPP |
| Jan 26, 2025 | PEPP 60 – 44 PAC |
| Mar 7, 2024 | PEPP 102 – 43 PAC |
| Feb 22, 2024 | PEPP 89 – 70 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 13-22 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 4-14 |
| Home | 5-10 | 7-9 |
| Away | 2-13 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 77.2 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#284) | -1.8 (#192) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.17 (#332) | -1.17 (#273) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.41 (#315) | -1.26 (#259) |
| RPI | 0.412 (#325) | 0.453 (#256) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 27.6% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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