Betting Lines
| Spread | PAC -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | PEPP +285 PAC -360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PAC +33 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | PAC -6.9 (-26.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (+13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PAC -6.8 (-26.2) | 134.8 (+16.2) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PAC -6.2 (-26.8) | 135.1 (+15.9) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PAC -6.5 (-26.5) | 136.3 (+14.7) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PAC -6.6 (-26.4) | 134.1 (+16.9) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 5, 2026 | PAC 74 – 69 PEPP |
| Jan 26, 2025 | PEPP 60 – 44 PAC |
| Jan 5, 2025 | PEPP 87 – 70 PAC |
| Mar 7, 2024 | PEPP 102 – 43 PAC |
| Feb 22, 2024 | PEPP 89 – 70 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-10 | 11-3 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 69.8 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#264) | 3.5 (#116) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#306) | 0.55 (#112) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.67 (#281) | 0.86 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.422 (#318) | 0.524 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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